Low risk of flash flooding, heavy rain in Southern Tier from Hurricane Ida remnants
The Southern Tier is at low risk of heavy rain and flash flooding from Hurricane Ida, according to the National Weather Service in Binghamton, but the flood risk is still real.
Remnants of hurricanes Fred and Henri have left saturated soils in many places, so not a lot of rain would be needed to cause more flooding.
The Binghamton Weather Forecast Office issued its fourth “Remnants of Hurricane Ida Briefing” Tuesday at 6 a.m., noting heavy rain is expected across northeast Pennsylvania and the southern Catskills Wednesday and Thursday.
Among the other key takeaways from the Binghamton Weather Forecast Office briefing:
- The heaviest rain, some 3-5 inches, is expected across the Wyoming Valley of northeast Pennsylvania into the Poconos. Locally higher amounts are possible.
- Significant rain measuring 2-4 inches is expected across the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania into the Catskills in New York state. This heavy rain could lead to excessive runoff and flash flooding across the region. Significant flash flooding is possible in Pennsylvania.
- If the heavy rain shifts even farther north, more of the Southern Tier and the Catskills may be impacted.
According to the Binghamton Weather Forecast Office, the current track of Ida should keep the bulk of the heavy rain over the southern portions of the Upper Susquehanna and the southern portions of the Upper Delaware River Basin.
This should reduce the amount of water draining into the entire Upper Susquehanna and Upper Delaware Basins, although some minor flooding could still occur.
Little to no rain is expected for the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley, according to the Weather Service.
The center of what remains of Ida was located over northern Mississippi Tuesday morning, National Weather Service trackers said. Deep tropical moisture is spreading northeastward, which will eventually merge with the front currently stalled out across Pennsylvania, the Weather Service said.
The heaviest rainfall will occur along this merged front, which will shift position over time. Drier air further to the north will limit the northern extent of rainfall in most of Upstate New York, according to this morning's briefing.
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