Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here's a quick guide to what traders are talking about this morning.
Good Morning, and its Non-Farm Payroll Friday! The Twitter whisper number via at 212K this morning, roughly unchanged from where it began on Monday. Bloomberg consensus is 228K. High estimate is 327K, low estimate is 175K. “Economists that I follow that have had good forecasting of late are equally all over the place” (Tchir, Brean). US Futures are in rally mode ahead of the print, as the rabid unwind that occurred earlier this week dissipates – and London charges forth – The Pound is surging and FTSE gaining almost 2% as a massive win for Cameron (Tories) stuns pundits. In Europe, the Stoxx is up 80bp, and DAX 70bp, in very light volume for this week – but profit-taking still occurring in the Financials. In Asia, Aussie Central Bank slashed inflation and growth forecasts, but offered no clear signal it would cut interest rates again soon. Aussie was off small, no bounce from the biggest weekly drop in 2 years; Nikkei added 50bp as the Yen Weakened – and the Shanghai Composite rebounded 2.3% having lost 8.2% in the previous three sessions – but still register the Biggest Weekly Loss in 5 Years. Chatter from our Asia traders about reports Social Insurance funds may buy stocks early next year and headlines the Shenzen-HK connect was approved
US 10YY is flat, but German Bunds are under slight pressure after yesterday’s sharp retracement. “capitulation” is the word I keep hearing in Treasury / Euro Credit circles – as volume exploded sharply on the reversal day yesterday – we will see.. The Euro is under pressure, as a Brexit prospect looms over investors – While the Yen is breaking down quickly, thru 120 against the $. The Stronger DXY is a headwind for commodities, yet everything is very well bid. China Trade Numbers are supporting the Oil complex, while Asian Stimulus hopes have Industrial Metals popping. Scheduled catalysts include the Nonfarm Payrolls Print at 8:30 - Fed’s Dudley speaks in NYC at 9:45. At 10 we get Wholesale Inventories. The Oil complex will focus on the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1, and we wrap with “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30. Chinese PPI and CPI tonight.
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