Neuroscientist Sam Wang (above), who moonlights as a polling analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, offers THIS PERSPECTIVE even before the end of this week’s Democratic Convention:
The national media is correct that this year’s Presidential race is close. And voters are polarized: as few as 1-2% of voters are persuadable.
However, the media have failed to clearly spell out the logical consequence that the Presidential race is also very stable. President Obama has kept an electoral lead every single day since May. Based on the statistical behavior of polls in past re-election races, his November re-elect probability is 88%. Conversely, ...