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Nate Silver, our favorite political numbers-cruncher, SAYS it’s not likely that Barack Obama will do as well at the ballot box against Mitt Romney as he did against John McCain four years ago:
Although Mr. Obama is now the clear favorite in the Nov. 6 forecast, his advantage is larger in the FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” which projects what would happen in an election held today.
The “now-cast” estimates that Mr. Obama would have a 97.8 percent chance of winning an election held today. Further, it pegs his advantage at five and a half percentage points in the national popular vote.
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