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Nate Silver, the best political numbers-cruncher in the business, says his current charts give President Obama “a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6.”
Silver bases his intuition in part on these three factors:
1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below-average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only ...
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