Polls showing a close presidential race don’t mean one outcome isn’t more likely than the other - Dansville, NY - Dansville - Genesee Country Express

Polls showing a close presidential race don’t mean one outcome isn’t more likely than the other

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By Pat Cunningham

That headline above may strike you as  nonsense — and it may well be just that — but  it’s based on the fact that certain people who are most earnestly watching presidential poll numbers see one result as much more likely than the other.

It’s like watching a sporting event in which, though the lead has been changing hands within a narrow range, one side is considerably more likely to emerge as the winner, according to the so-called experts.

At least that’s my reading of the two charts above, both of which seem to belie the polls showing the race between Barack Obama and ...

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